Puttin' My Foot In It (again)

OTB · 02-12-2009, 10:56 PM

Mark my words, sonny….

We have been living in what will someday likely be considered The Golden Age of Motorcycling. I say that not as simply a crusty, drooling, certifiable Olde Farte, but as a fella that’s been around motorcycling for the better part of 45 years and seen the ups and downs of economies and motorcycling companies.

Face it; in the United States, as a form of day-to-day transportation, motorcycling is and forever will be little more than a secondary, albeit passionate choice. The sheer size and diversity of climate throughout pretty much preclude biking as a year-round choice for all but those in the southern and westernmost states (with the exception of my friend HarleyJohn in PA, who rides year-round, drops his bikes frequently on sheet ice, and is both certifiable and a tremendously gifted rider). We will always be a disposable income type of activity….so if disposable incomes shrink, so too will our beloved sport. I’m seeing it in the sheer volume and desperation of the used bike market. I’ve NEVER bought such great bikes at such depressed pricing from such willing and eager sellers. NEVER!

Go to NADA or KBB and pull up this or last years pricing guides: there are currently 30 something manufacturers selling over a thousand different models; a virtual plethora of small, medium and major manufacturers of two-wheeled fun built or imported into the US. Now go pull up 1973or 74 (18 manufacturers worldwide, about 12 selling in the US). 1980 or 85( down to 12 worldwide, with less than 8 in the US market) . Kinda drop in and out of random years in past decades and you will notice that some manufactures come and go, or just go away over the years. Also notice that those that do so leave when economic times get tough; either exchange rates get so bad that their products become to expensive over here (like Ducati in the late 80’s ) or just go away altogether like so many historic names.

Face it, tough economic times winnow the strong from the weak; that’s just the way it is. Tough times also force companies to slow new product development; R&D budgets shrink, lower sales volumes increase cost-per-unit tooling costs, which force companies to stretch out new model lines. We have come to expect that the big four will roll out stunningly superior New-And-Improved 600’s and 1000’s every 3-4 years, and that major improvements can be expected on every model every model year. Major and minor factories pour millions (and maybe even billions) into a myriad of Factory and quasi-factory Supersport and GP teams in the hope that “Win on Sunday, sell on Monday” will come true. We have come to expect that this year’s unobtanium will grace next year’s flagship street bikes.

Well, I hope you’ve enjoyed the ride so far, ‘cause I think a lot of it is going to come to a screetching halt. All the Bailout Thrashing About that our intrepid government has been doing is going to bring about an extended economic malaise that is going to make that Carter years look like a picnic in the park. They are going to tax and spend, and when that doesn’t work they’re going to double down again. I have no interest in getting into a shouting match over Who Struck John…….but I do know that every time government injects itself into the market place, the marketplace invariably suffers.

What I’m trying to say (so poorly) is that if this drags on as it appears it’s going to (and as all the pundits and self-appointed saviors tell us it will), you are going to see some big changes in this sport we all love. A shrinkage of choices as companies discard marginally profitable models (or even whole lines), a slowing or near elimination of frequent model updates and innovations, and a shrinking of the whole marketplace as less efficient and boutique manufacturers go the way of the Dodo bird are a few of the things coming our way. That goes for the accessory and aftermarket areas, too.

I hope you’ve got the bike that you want; if you don’t, now would be the time to hop on one of the great deals out there. I was going to buy a mildly rashed Aprilia Factory (list price $18000) with Olhins and cabon fiber and Ti EVERYWHERE for about a third of list, until I realized I could buy a brand-new leftover ’07 for half the MSRP with a full warranty and no damage!

All I’m saying is that great deals abound, new and used, and if you are the position, there will NEVER be as good a time to upgrade or add that special bike to your stable as RIGHT NOW!

JMHO and happy riding .

OTB

02-12-2009, 10:56 PM	#1
OTB The Man Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: CrabTown USA Moto: 00 Bimota DB4 Posts: 823	Puttin' My Foot In It (again) Mark my words, sonny…. We have been living in what will someday likely be considered The Golden Age of Motorcycling. I say that not as simply a crusty, drooling, certifiable Olde Farte, but as a fella that’s been around motorcycling for the better part of 45 years and seen the ups and downs of economies and motorcycling companies. Face it; in the United States, as a form of day-to-day transportation, motorcycling is and forever will be little more than a secondary, albeit passionate choice. The sheer size and diversity of climate throughout pretty much preclude biking as a year-round choice for all but those in the southern and westernmost states (with the exception of my friend HarleyJohn in PA, who rides year-round, drops his bikes frequently on sheet ice, and is both certifiable and a tremendously gifted rider). We will always be a disposable income type of activity….so if disposable incomes shrink, so too will our beloved sport. I’m seeing it in the sheer volume and desperation of the used bike market. I’ve NEVER bought such great bikes at such depressed pricing from such willing and eager sellers. NEVER! Go to NADA or KBB and pull up this or last years pricing guides: there are currently 30 something manufacturers selling over a thousand different models; a virtual plethora of small, medium and major manufacturers of two-wheeled fun built or imported into the US. Now go pull up 1973or 74 (18 manufacturers worldwide, about 12 selling in the US). 1980 or 85( down to 12 worldwide, with less than 8 in the US market) . Kinda drop in and out of random years in past decades and you will notice that some manufactures come and go, or just go away over the years. Also notice that those that do so leave when economic times get tough; either exchange rates get so bad that their products become to expensive over here (like Ducati in the late 80’s ) or just go away altogether like so many historic names. Face it, tough economic times winnow the strong from the weak; that’s just the way it is. Tough times also force companies to slow new product development; R&D budgets shrink, lower sales volumes increase cost-per-unit tooling costs, which force companies to stretch out new model lines. We have come to expect that the big four will roll out stunningly superior New-And-Improved 600’s and 1000’s every 3-4 years, and that major improvements can be expected on every model every model year. Major and minor factories pour millions (and maybe even billions) into a myriad of Factory and quasi-factory Supersport and GP teams in the hope that “Win on Sunday, sell on Monday” will come true. We have come to expect that this year’s unobtanium will grace next year’s flagship street bikes. Well, I hope you’ve enjoyed the ride so far, ‘cause I think a lot of it is going to come to a screetching halt. All the Bailout Thrashing About that our intrepid government has been doing is going to bring about an extended economic malaise that is going to make that Carter years look like a picnic in the park. They are going to tax and spend, and when that doesn’t work they’re going to double down again. I have no interest in getting into a shouting match over Who Struck John…….but I do know that every time government injects itself into the market place, the marketplace invariably suffers. What I’m trying to say (so poorly) is that if this drags on as it appears it’s going to (and as all the pundits and self-appointed saviors tell us it will), you are going to see some big changes in this sport we all love. A shrinkage of choices as companies discard marginally profitable models (or even whole lines), a slowing or near elimination of frequent model updates and innovations, and a shrinking of the whole marketplace as less efficient and boutique manufacturers go the way of the Dodo bird are a few of the things coming our way. That goes for the accessory and aftermarket areas, too. I hope you’ve got the bike that you want; if you don’t, now would be the time to hop on one of the great deals out there. I was going to buy a mildly rashed Aprilia Factory (list price $18000) with Olhins and cabon fiber and Ti EVERYWHERE for about a third of list, until I realized I could buy a brand-new leftover ’07 for half the MSRP with a full warranty and no damage! All I’m saying is that great deals abound, new and used, and if you are the position, there will NEVER be as good a time to upgrade or add that special bike to your stable as RIGHT NOW! JMHO and happy riding . OTB